Craig Peters

EAGAN, Minn."If only"

Minnesota had been able to protect a one-point lead for the final 50 seconds of Sunday's 19-17 Vikings loss to the Bears as time expired, the team would have a 5-5 record with seven games remaining.

Instead, after a 56-yard Bears kickoff return, three handoffs for 9 yards and a 48-yard field goal, Minnesota fell to 4-6.

History tells us there's a big difference between 4-6 and 5-5.

From 1990-2024, there were 191 teams at 4-6 through 10 games, and only 18 (9.4 percent) made the playoffs. During that span, there were 164 teams at 5-5 through 10 games, and 50 (30.5 percent) made the playoffs.

Thus, Minnesota must do some climbing and eliminate the "if only" plays that have proven problematic this season.

Head Coach Kevin O'Connell was responding to an answer about passes getting tipped at the line by defenses and noted, "There's so many times where you're watching [the game film], and you're finding the word 'if' showing up in a lot of your responses. 'If' we can convert that third down when Justin wins on a pressure cut versus a linebacker. 'If' we can hit that early down play pass to kind of check that box while we're running it, get that explosive. Those are normally good formulas for us."

" 'If' we can get that ball thrown over Montez [Sweat on third-and-4 in the fourth quarter], it's not a batted pass, it's an Aaron Jones catch-and-run. In that scenario, we ended up converting that drive for a touchdown, but with needing the fourth-and-4 to do so," he said before adding part of Baltimore's strategy was to have big defensive linemen "block shots," which became more impactful on instances when J.J. McCarthy moved up too much in the pocket.

A Vikings season swaying on the "if" factors now will turn to visiting Green Bay (6-3-1) at noon (CT) Sunday.

Here's a look at the current NFC playoff picture with conference standings and a status update as we head into Week 12.

Current Division Leaders

1. Philadelphia Eagles (8-2)

Remaining Schedule

11/23 @ Cowboys (4-5-1)

11/28 Bears (7-3)

12/8 @ Chargers (7-4)

12/14 Raiders (2-8)

12/20 @ Commanders (3-8)

12/28 @ Bills (7-3)

Week 18 Commanders (3-8)

Status:The defending Super Bowl Champions improved to 7-1 in one-score games by edging the Lions 16-9 on Sunday Night Football. Philadelphia held Detroit to an 0-for-5 showing on fourth downs. The Eagles secured the head-to-head tiebreaker over the L.A. Rams in Week 3 with a field goal block returned for a TD as time expired.

2. Los Angeles Rams (8-2)

Remaining Schedule

11/23 Buccaneers (6-4)

11/30 @ Panthers (6-5)

12/7 @ Cardinals (3-7)

12/14 Lions (6-4)

12/18 @ Seahawks (7-3)

12/29 @ Falcons (3-7)

Week 18 Cardinals (3-7)

Status:After outscoring four opponents a combined 128-46 from Week 6 through Week 10 (with a bye mixed in), the Rams buckled down for a 21-19 decision against the Seahawks by nabbing four interceptions in SoCal. Matthew Stafford completed 15 of 28 passes for 130 yards, but his day included TD tosses of 1 and 6 yards in a game during which L.A. never trailed.

3. Chicago Bears (7-3)

Remaining Schedule

11/23 Steelers (6-4)

11/28 @ Eagles (8-2)

12/7 @ Packers (6-3-1)

12/14 Browns (2-8)

12/20 Packers (6-3-1)

12/28 @ 49ers (7-4)

Week 18 Lions (6-4)

Status:Chicago's long kickoff return in the game's final minute positioned the Bears to tie an NFL record with five wins after trailing with less than two minutes remaining in regulation. The Bears joined the 2011 Broncos and 2016 Lions as the only teams to do so. None of the seven teams Chicago has defeated has a winning record through Week 11 but six of seven remaining opponents do.

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-4)

Remaining Schedule

11/23 @ Rams (8-2)

11/30 Cardinals (3-7)

12/7 Saints (2-8)

12/11 Falcons (3-7)

12/21 @ Panthers (6-5)

12/28 @ Dolphins (4-7)

Week 18 Panthers (6-5)

Status:Since opening with a 5-1 mark, the Buccaneers have dropped three of four. Baker Mayfield (16-for-28) was one of 13 QBs who attempted at least 10 passes in Week 11 that did not exceed a 58-percent completion rate.

Current Wild Card Teams

5. Seattle Seahawks (7-3)

Remaining Schedule

11/23 @ Titans (1-9)

11/30 Vikings (4-6)

12/7 @ Falcons (3-7)

12/14 Colts (8-2)

12/18 Rams (8-2)

Week 17 @ Panthers (6-5)

Week 18 @ 49ers (7-4)

Status:Each of Sam Darnold's four interceptions occurred in Seahawks territory. A 31-yard return of the first set up a 3-yard TD drive for the Rams, but Seattle battled to the finish.

6. Green Bay Packers (6-3-1)

Remaining Schedule

11/23 Vikings (4-6)

11/27 @ Lions (6-4)

12/7 Bears (7-3)

12/14 @ Broncos (9-2)

12/20 @ Bears (7-3)

Week 17 Ravens (5-5)

Week 18 @ Vikings (4-6)

Status:Malik Willis stepped in briefly for Jordan Love and went 2-for-2 with a TD toss. Willis has 22 first downs (includes four TDs) passing on just 56 attempts since 2024. Love returned in the second quarter and threw two scores, including the 17-yard go-ahead TD (and 2-point conversion) with 4:02 remaining for a 27-20 victory Sunday.

7. San Francisco 49ers (7-4)

Remaining Schedule

11/24 Panthers (6-5)

11/30 @ Browns (2-8)

Week 14 Bye

12/14 Titans (1-9)

12/22 @ Colts (8-2)

12/28 Bears (7-3)

Week 18 Seahawks (7-3)

Status:Brock Purdy returned for his first game action since Sept. 28 and efficiently completed 73.1 percent of his passes with three scores for a 133.5 passer rating. The 49ers improved to 5-2 in road games and 7-2 in NFC games.

Striking distance

8. Detroit Lions (6-4)

Remaining Schedule

11/23 Giants (2-9)

11/27 Packers (6-3-1)

12/4 Cowboys (4-5-1)

12/14 @ Rams (8-2)

12/21 Steelers (6-4)

12/25 @ Vikings (4-6)

Week 18 @ Bears (7-3)

Status:The Lions followed their Week 9 loss to the Vikings with a "get right" game against the Commanders (winning 44-22). Detroit will try to follow a Week 11 loss with a similar "get right" game against the Giants, the conference's first team guaranteed of a losing record in 2025.

9. Carolina Panthers (6-5)

Remaining Schedule

11/24 @ 49ers (7-4)

11/30 Rams (8-2)

Week 14 Bye

12/14 @ Saints (2-8)

12/21 Buccaneers (6-4)

Week 17 Seahawks (7-3)

Week 18 @ Buccaneers (6-4)

Status:Carolina trailed 21-7 in the second quarter and 24-19 in the fourth quarter at Atlanta on Sunday but managed to complete the season sweep of the Falcons thanks to Bryce Young throwing for 448.

Small margin of error

10. Minnesota Vikings (4-6)

Remaining Schedule

11/23 @ Packers (6-3-1)

11/30 @ Seahawks (7-3)

12/7 Commanders (3-8)

12/14 @ Cowboys (4-5-1)

12/21 @ Giants (2-9)

12/25 Lions (6-4)

Week 18 Packers (6-3-1)

Status:Minnesota will try to sweep its NFC North road slate and frankly needs to as the first step of climbing out of its hole.

11. Dallas Cowboys (4-5-1)

Remaining Schedule

11/23 Eagles (8-2)

11/27 Chiefs (5-5)

12/4 @ Lions (6-4)

12/14 Vikings (4-6)

12/21 Chargers (7-4)

12/25 @ Commanders (3-8)

Week 18 @ Giants (2-9)

Status:The Cowboys, who just played Monday, will continue populating the airwaves with a marquee game against the Eagles, plus back-to-back Thursday games.

The math could still math with help

12. Arizona Cardinals (3-7)

Remaining Schedule

11/23 Jaguars (6-4)

11/30 @ Buccaneers (6-4)

12/7 Rams (8-2)

12/14 @ Texans (5-5)

12/21 Falcons (3-7)

Week 17 @ Bengals (3-7)

Week 18 @ Rams (8-2)

Status:The Cardinals have dropped seven of eight contests and been outscored 85-44 in division losses to the Seahawks and 49ers after defeating the Cowboys in Week 9. Jacoby Brissett set an NFL record with 47 completions (on 57 attempts) against the Niners, but the Cardinals were out of that one from the jump.

13. Atlanta Falcons (3-7)

Remaining Schedule

11/23 @ Saints (2-8)

11/30 @ Jets (2-8)

12/7 Seahawks (7-3)

12/11 @ Buccaneers (6-4)

12/21 @ Cardinals (3-7)

12/29 Rams (8-2)

Week 18 Saints (2-8)

Status:Since improving to 3-2 with an impressive win against Buffalo in Week 6, the Falcons have dropped five consecutive games, including back-to-back decisions in overtime. QB Michael Penix, Jr., landed on Injured Reserve, so Kirk Cousins will get the call. He is 12 passing touchdowns away from becoming the 15th player all-time to throw for at least 300.

14. Washington Commanders (3-8)

Remaining Schedule

Week 12 Bye

11/30 Broncos (9-2)

12/7 @ Vikings (4-6)

12/14 @ Giants (2-9)

12/20 Eagles (8-2)

12/25 Cowboys (4-5-1)

Week 18 @ Eagles (8-2)

Status:A 13-6 edge at the start of the fourth quarter proved untenable against the Dolphins in the NFL's first game in Spain. The late-season bye couldn't come soon enough for a team that's battled injuries and lost six consecutive games.

TICKETS

2025 SCHEDULE

15. New Orleans Saints (2-8)

Remaining Schedule

11/23 Falcons (3-7)

11/30 @ Dolphins (4-7)

12/7 @ Buccaneers (6-4)

12/14 Panthers (6-5)

12/21 Jets (2-8)

12/28 @ Titans (1-9)

Week 18 @ Falcons (3-7)

Status:The Saints lost four and won one before losing four and winning one on the way to their Week 11 bye. Cameron Jordan did become the 20th player since 1982 to record 125 career sacks with one against Carolina in New Orleans' last outing.

Not eliminated yet but could be before bye

16. New York Giants (2-9)

Remaining Schedule

11/23 @ Lions (6-4)

12/1 @ Patriots (9-2)

Week 14 Bye

12/14 Commanders (3-8)

12/21 Vikings (4-6)

Week 17 @ Raiders (2-8)

Week 18 Cowboys (4-5-1)

Status:Jameis Winston stepped in at QB, and the Giants kept things interesting, but an interception in the end zone with 40 seconds remaining sealed New York's ninth loss of the season.

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